From the LA Times. H/T Joe Romm.
Can you imagine the US federal government taking out advertisements like this:
Apparently there is some precedent.
Good advice or not, it seems unimaginable that this was uncontroversial during the “greatest generation”. It shows how quickly ideology changes, among other things.
I appreciate people sharing the broad outlines of how they think we ought to handle the carbon situation. I am not entirely serious with the proposal I have outlined; there is much that I like about it and I hope it can be salvaged, but so far nobody has pointed out what I think is its fatal flaw. We’ll get back to that shortly.
The idea of planning is this. If you have to achieve something by a certain time, start with that time and work backwards to see what was necessary to achieve the goal.
So, if we stop emitting at around the trillionth ton of C, I am told by no less than Jim Hansen, the ocean will absorb enough CO2 to get us back down to 350 ppmv before the system equilibrates to the peak forcing. That is, we probably won’t need to scrub CO2 out of the free atmosphere, which, jobs or no, would definitely be a negative kick to well-being. Whereas if we keep going beyond that, we probably will; that’s a terrible legacy to leave.
So, instead of arguing about which nation gets to emit what, and gets to trade what, I propose that we simply divide the atmospheric carbon dump evenly among those now living. So you have 65 tons of CO2 left to you, and I have 65 tons left to me, and so do Michael Dell and Sandra Bullock, to pick a couple of rich local people at random. Now Michael Dell will get through those 65 tons in a jiffy, no doubt. But being rich, he can bid for more on the open market. Some person in Baluchistan with no intent to use his 65 tons can happily sell some of them to Michael Dell. (These are NOT units of fuel. These are the rights to units of CO2 emissions.)
Conceivably, we can adjust the cap if the denial squad is right: if the sensitivity is low we can allocate more emissions. But the principle that eventually come of the carbon has to be left in the ground still stands. We cannot release all of it. So the sooner we agree to the principle of a hard cap, I think, the better.
A very low-friction electronic marketplace will be easy to set up.
Consider some of the advantages of cap and trade at the individual level. Externalities are clearly priced. People not using their allocation are directly rewarded. International negotiations are avoided. No blame accrues to past behavior; no nation gains a competitive disadvantage. The windfall goes not to the fuel producers, but to the poorest people in the world; a natural income transfer. So much for the crocodile tears for the underdeveloped. We use the emissions cap explicitly to support them in a transition to a market economy.
Most of all, it’s simple and it’s fair. You can explain it to people. There are advantages all around. Did I miss something?
We need to begin by acknowledging that our problem has no precedent.
It appears that polite and reasonable pursuit of a transition to sustainability has failed in the face of a sort of twisted unnatural malice accidentally written into law. We are at the mercy of a tyranny of the “fiduciary responsibilities” of the officers of the large corporations that have made the miracle of modern life possible and are increasingly making the doom of the future ever more enormous and inevitable.
These blind and monstrous corporate “responsibilities” dominate the life of the advanced countries and they (and their odd echoes in China) influence many other countries.
The conventional modern view of the world has it that while economic freedoms cross all borders, all other freedoms are contingent, local, tied to geography, that is, tied to a particular nation-state and a particular sovereignty. Thus, we have international governance for trade, but not for, say, immigration, or for that matter, for freedom or for preservation of our environment.
Persons who inhabit the “wrong” nation-state are accorded limited and contingent rights. In America’s incredible legal tangle, these rights as accorded to any individual may be entirely self-contradictory as well as capricious: until recently “illegal” immigrants who are now in danger of expulsion for a traffic stop were encouraged to get drivers’ licenses and bank accounts and even home mortgages!
So, if there is any future to the world, the homebodies who haven’t seen much of it are overrepresented in making the necessary decisions! And it is the political “responsibility” of their elected representatives to maintain an environment favorable to their own nation in competition with all others, as well as responsive to the aforesaid “fiduciarily responsible” corporate monsters.
Looking at the CO2 picture in particular, (and other global issues may have similar features) the trouble is that there may be no solution that can possibly satisfy the major players (The G7, the BRICS, southeast Asia) individually that can actually resolve the problem that the trillion-and-first ton of carbon is probably going to be emitted, and then some.
It’s little wonder when you think about it. In round numbers there are 7 billion of us and we have 450 billion tons left to allocate among us. That leaves you and your half share of all your descendants 65 tons of carbon to play with, or 240 tons of CO2.
Now the US has been holding pretty steady at 19 tons per capita. That means if 1) you don’t want to cross the trillionth ton boundary (close to the 2 degrees C line) and 2) you are American and 3) you don’t want to use more than your fair share and 4) you don’t want to change anything until the last minute, you will have to go cold turkey on carbon emissions in twelve years. No car, no electricity, no heating fuel, no imported food, nothing. Your share of what’s left of the atmospheric sink will be used up at that point.
Will the world hold us to this? No, they won’t. The world is as addicted to American excess as America is. The whole crazy system is currently based on the Chinese lending us the money we paid them to buy stuff they made for us that we don’t need so they can afford to build stuff for themselves that they don’t need. Somehow if we do this, there is food on the table, and if we don’t, there ain’t. To those who believe in the Invisible Hand, this must be reasonable because it is happening.
I am beginning to suspect are past the point where we can rely on our governments to fix this situation.
Certainly the corporations won’t help.
The Breakthrough Institute keeps telling us to hold our collective breaths for a deus ex machina solution, but it’s getting mightly late for our savior to arrive in the form of, say, a safe, scalable backyard nuclear plant or a sunlight to algae to oil process. Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for the quick fix if it’s there to be had, but we really are talking about an enormous scale. I’m reminded of the avatar in the Douglas Adams’ Restaurant at the End of the World, who arrived to late to save anything at all.
Getting back to governments, it begins to look as though the COP cannot work. Governments are beholden to too many interests to behave as sane participants in a shared effort. Everyone is thrilled to let the Chinese and the Yanks share the blame for business continuing as usual. Perhaps our successors will be wiser than we are, but time is very definitely running out.
My modest suggestion is that we work toward a global consensus among the populations of all the countries, and not among the diplomats; further, that allocations will be designated at the individual, not the national level, and that all resulting rules will apply to individuals.
So, suppose each person alive today gets an allocation of 65 tons, and is free to sell it on the open market. That way, poor people who are carbon frugal get an income source, and rich people get to keep using carbon-based energy for a while as the cost goes up. Most of the buyers will presumably be industrial…
I can see several problems with this approach but it has some advantages 1) simple 2) arguably fair 3) market based 4) enforces a strong cap. It would also light a fire under private sector research into carbon free alternatives a lot better than a few DoE grants would.
Thanks to Dennis at Samadhisoft, here’s an Australian TV piece on peak oil.
I think it’s an excellent example of communication of complex issues to a mass audience.
I like how the rich imagery is interwoven with interviews with major players and with various versions of an actually informative infographic. This is good public communication of bad news*.
* = (Except that “Houston, we have a problem” is sort of getting a bit trite around these parts, but I guess we Texans weren’t the taaaget odience, roit?)
“Science is not enough, religion is not enough, art is not enough, politics and economics are not enough, nor is love, nor is duty, nor is action however disinterested, nor, however sublime, is contemplation. Nothing short of everything will really do. We cannot reason ourselves out of our basic irrationality. All we can do is learn the art of being irrational in a reasonable way.“
– Aldous Huxley in “Island” via Willard
“Ulysses knew that the sirens’ enchanting song could lead him to follow them, but he didn’t want to do that. At the same time he also did not want to deprive himself from hearing their song – so he asked his sailors to tie him to the mast and fill their ears with wax to block out the sound – and so he could hear the song of the sirens but resist their lure. … It seems that [Ulysses’…] ability to exert self-control is less connected to a natural ability to be more zen-like in the face of temptations, and more linked to the ability to reconfigure our environment (tying ourselves to the mast) and modulate the intensity by which it tempts us (filling our ears with wax).”
“Science makes clear that we are transgressing planetary boundaries that have kept civilization safe for the past 10,000 years. Evidence is growing that human pressures are starting to overwhelm the Earth’s buffering capacity.
Humans are now the most significant driver of global change, propelling the planet into a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. We can no longer exclude the possibility that our collective actions will trigger tipping points, risking abrupt and irreversible consequences for human communities and ecological systems.
We cannot continue on our current path. The time for procrastination is over. We cannot afford the luxury of denial. We must respond rationally, equipped with scientific evidence.“
“Our call is for fundamental transformation and innovation in all spheres and at all scales in order to stop and reverse global environmental change and move toward fair and lasting prosperity for present and future generations.”
Appealing to reason is clearly necessary and clearly insufficient. We must reject calls to ignore detailed, careful rational argument, but we also have to dedicate the whole of our humanity to the required fundamental shift; this requires something other than mere ordinary scientific discourse.
This is a new prototype of chutzpah, replacing the man who kills his parents and then pleads with the court for mercy on the grounds that he is an orphan.
Go. Look. I am not making this up.
Dozens of think tank cosponsors and hundreds of scientists will gather in an effort to “restore the scientific method” to its rightful place in the debate over the causes, consequences, and policy implications of climate change.
The theme of the conference, “Restoring the Scientific Method,” acknowledges the fact that claims of scientific certainty and predictions of climate catastrophes are based on “post-normal science,” which substitutes claims of consensus for the scientific method. This choice has had terrible consequences for science and society. Abandoning the scientific method led to the “Climategate” scandal and the errors and abuses of peer review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The scientists speaking at this conference, and the hundreds more who are expected to attend, are committed to restoring the scientific method. This means abandoning the failed hypothesis of man-made climate change, and using real science and sound economics to improve our understanding of the planet’s ever-changing climate.
So apparently science has been politicized, and the Heartland Institute is here to rescue us. (With economics, yet.) Priceless.
Oh and also:
The event is open to the public. Federal and state elected officials can attend for free.
Boy, oh boy, free tickets for elected officials! That’s the way to keep politics out of science. Yupperoo. Yessireebob.
Apparently climate denial is over and has been replaced by a hilarious farce. I can’t wait for this!
Somebody really ought to be collecting Morano’s charming missives somewhere; he really doesn’t seem to understand the web very well. Anyway, after many months of declaring victory in his inimitable style, his latest delightful and elegant discourse seems to have an air of desperation to it. So for those of you not privileged to be on his mailing list (which includes all his previous targets such as your humble correspondent), check it out:
NAS/NRC’s Ralph Cicerone is copied on this email. For latest go to www.ClimateDepot.com
Climate Depot’s Round up on National Research Council’s media hyped political science scare report
See how the best ‘science’ politics can manufacture is produced — Media loves NRC’s politically manufactured ‘science’
Flashback: MIT’s Lindzen Slams: ‘Ralph Cicerone of NAS/NRC is saying that regardless of evidence the answer is predetermined. If gov’t wants carbon control, that is the answer that the Academies will provide’
WaPo: ‘Inevitable complex deniers willfully ignorant recalcitrance cynical catastrophic planetary damage drastic Republican…’ — ‘…preeminent rising seas spreading deserts intensifying storms loom significant risks caused by human activities’
‘The Wash. Post wants candidates to be quizzed on what they would do about ‘the rising seas, spreading deserts and intensifying storms’ — But natural disasters, topographic changes and population booms and busts have always occurred and will continue to occur. None of these phenomena can be scientifically tied to manmade emissions of CO2. So they are simply irrelevant sideshow issues’
Media hyped National Research Council (NRC) report exposed: ‘NRC report is the opinion of a mere 21 authors – nearly all of whom had a longstanding record of global warming activism’ — ‘Far from providing objective, expert proof of a global warming crisis, the NRC report provides objective proof that – despite their grandiose-sounding names – the National Academy of Sciences and National Research Council are more interested in political agendas than objective, fact-based science’
WaPo calls debate over! ‘Climate change denial becomes harder to justify’ — ‘Deniers are willfully ignorant, lost in wishful thinking, cynical or some combination of the three’ — Wash Post: ‘Every candidate for political office, including for president, should be asked whether they disagree with the scientific consensus of America’s premier scientific advisory group, and if so, on what basis they disagree; and if not, what they propose to do about the rising seas, spreading deserts and intensifying storms that, absent a change in policy, loom on America’s horizon’
Arctic Study Countered: ‘Studies have found that Arctic temperatures have fluctuated, and are now around the same level as they were in the mid-1930s’ — ‘Scientist Igor Polyakov of the International Arctic Research Center at the U. of Alaska, Fairbanks tracked Arctic temp records from latter part of 19th century until current decade, and found that 1930s marked the warmest time during that period’
Background on NAS/NRC’s Ralph Cicerone:
The National Academy of Sciences is Hertsgaard’s evidence for climate fear: For Shame: NAS Pres. Ralph Cicerone Turns Science Org. into political advocacy group: $6 million NAS study is used to lobby for global warming bill
For Shame: NAS Pres. Ralph Cicerone Turns Science Org. into political advocacy group: $6 million NAS study is used to lobby for global warming bill
‘Incontrovertibility’ belongs to religion where it is referred to as dogma…Cicerone [of NAS] is saying that regardless of evidence the answer is predetermined. If gov’t wants carbon control, that is the answer that the Academies will provide…We should stop accepting term, ‘skeptic.’ Skepticism implies doubts about a plausible proposition. Current warming alarm hardly represents a plausible proposition.’
‘This is the same kind of foolishness that led the IPCC to overreach in proposing climate policies’
NAS is now ‘an advocacy group for government policy not a trusted impartial agency for science issues’
Climate Depot Response: ‘More government funded propaganda reports from science political hacks like NAS Chief Ralph Cicerone only prove that the global warming movement has learned nothing from Climategate. The more scientists turn to political activism, the more their ’cause’ becomes a joke.’
1875 Eye Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20006
I like how report A can’t be trusted because it’s all insiders and report B can’t be trusted because it’s all outsiders.
But this isn’t entirely a joke. “Pulling the plug” on NAS because you don’t like consensus scientific opinion is, um, perhaps an ever so slightly maladaptive strategy?
Quote of the week is relevant, restated here for future reference (h/t Brian Dupuis):
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.’
– Isaac Asimov via Ed Brayton